SC Freiburg 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 5W 3D 2L at Europa-Park Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, SC Freiburg have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus RB Leipzig 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 63% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.63 xG and RB Leipzig 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.092 / defence 0.868 | RB Leipzig attack 0.886 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.234. Data: 41 SC Freiburg games / 41 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | RB Leipzig 5.26. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 50% | RB Leipzig 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG SC Freiburg 1.63 / RB Leipzig 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.092 / def 0.868 | RB Leipzig attack 0.886 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RB Leipzig xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 50% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.09) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.26
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.58
0.95
RB Leipzig xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
4%
26.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.95 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 16W 12D 13L from 41 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 10L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.46 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.83 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.70 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.45 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 65%, RB Leipzig 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SC Freiburg) and 50% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Freiburg's games and 50% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Freiburg's matches and 50% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.63 xG and RB Leipzig 0.95 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against RB Leipzig attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 19%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 63%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.46 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.