SC Freiburg 0-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees RB Leipzig travel to Schwarzwald-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 5W 2D 3L at Schwarzwald-Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 65% versus RB Leipzig 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.41 xG and RB Leipzig 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.193 / defence 1.078 | RB Leipzig attack 1.050 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.413. Data: 23 SC Freiburg games / 23 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 32% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 41%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | RB Leipzig 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | RB Leipzig 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 32% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG SC Freiburg 1.41 / RB Leipzig 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.193 / def 1.078 | RB Leipzig attack 1.050 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.60
RB Leipzig xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 0 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 32% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.19) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.74
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.01
1.60
RB Leipzig xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.60 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 9W 7D 7L from 23 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 3L across 23 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 5W 4D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.87 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 games (1.48 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 15W 5D 3L in their last 23 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.64 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.73 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 73%, RB Leipzig 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (SC Freiburg) and 46% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of SC Freiburg's games and 46% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SC Freiburg's matches and 46% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 0-3 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.41 xG and RB Leipzig 1.60 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.19 / defence 1.08 against RB Leipzig attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 32% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 41%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.