SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Hertha BSC at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SC Freiburg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for SC Freiburg, 1 for Hertha BSC and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 59% versus Hertha BSC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 59% | Hertha BSC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.35 xG and Hertha BSC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.968 / defence 0.864 | Hertha BSC attack 0.822 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.238. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 SC Freiburg games / 59 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 68% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 10%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Hertha BSC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 68% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Freiburg 2.35 / Hertha BSC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.968 / def 0.864 | Hertha BSC attack 0.822 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Hertha BSC xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 68% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 3W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.97) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.65
10%
9.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.23
0.88
Hertha BSC xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
9.73
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
9%
10.54
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
102.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.88 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 17D 14L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.97 PPG from 59 outings (15W 12D 32L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SC Freiburg's home form reads 16W 8D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.66 points per game from 29 outings (5W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.14 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 28W 17D 14L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 15W 12D 32L in their last 59 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.93 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.66 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2020, when SC Freiburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 69%, Hertha BSC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SC Freiburg and 62% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SC Freiburg's games and 52% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches and 62% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.35 xG and Hertha BSC 0.88 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Hertha BSC attack 0.82 / defence 1.35, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 68% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 10%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 59%, Hertha BSC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.