SC Freiburg 3-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Hertha BSC at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
On current form, SC Freiburg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SC Freiburg, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 60% versus Hertha BSC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 61% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and Hertha BSC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.924 / defence 0.896 | Hertha BSC attack 0.742 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.406. Data: 57 SC Freiburg games / 57 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Freiburg 1.94 / Hertha BSC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.924 / def 0.896 | Hertha BSC attack 0.742 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hertha BSC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg 3 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 59% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.92) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.08
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.88
0.94
Hertha BSC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
43.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.94 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 16D 19L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (14W 16D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 10D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (5W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.16 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 16D 27L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.64 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2020, when SC Freiburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 68%, Hertha BSC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SC Freiburg) and 57% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Freiburg's games and 57% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SC Freiburg's matches and 57% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Hertha BSC 3-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and Hertha BSC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Hertha BSC attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 16%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 61%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.