SC Freiburg 4-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Hertha BSC at Schwarzwald-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Schwarzwald-Stadion: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.00 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 67% and Hertha BSC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 50% | Hertha BSC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.17 xG and Hertha BSC 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.969 / defence 1.265 | Hertha BSC attack 0.949 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.602. Data: 12 SC Freiburg games / 12 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 20% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 52%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 1.92. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 83% | Hertha BSC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 20% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG SC Freiburg 1.17 / Hertha BSC 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.969 / def 1.265 | Hertha BSC attack 0.949 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.602 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Hertha BSC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 December 2020 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg 4 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 20% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.97) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
20%
5.05
28%
3.54
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.92
Hertha BSC xG
5.05
20%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
3%
34.52
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.92 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.17 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SC Freiburg's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.58 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.00 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2020, when SC Freiburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 83%, Hertha BSC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Freiburg) and 67% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SC Freiburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Hertha BSC 4-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.17 xG and Hertha BSC 1.92 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Hertha BSC attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 20% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 52%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 50%, Hertha BSC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.17 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.