SC Freiburg 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Schwarzwald-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Schwarzwald-Stadion: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.70 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 69% and Eintracht Frankfurt 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.15 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.450 / defence 1.168 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.935 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.483. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 SC Freiburg games / 16 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.57. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 75% | Eintracht Frankfurt 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG SC Freiburg 2.15 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.450 / def 1.168 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.935 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 20 January 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 48% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.19
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.77
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
3%
30.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.62 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 5D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 6W 8D 2L from 16 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.44 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 8D 2L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.50 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 75%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SC Freiburg and 62% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Freiburg's games and 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches and 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.15 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.45 / defence 1.17 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 28%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Eintracht Frankfurt 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.44 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.