SC Freiburg 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 7W 3D 0L at Europa-Park Stadion — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.98 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.971 / defence 0.847 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.894 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.260. Data: 57 SC Freiburg games / 57 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 15%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | 1899 Hoffenheim 6.67. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Freiburg 1.98 / 1899 Hoffenheim 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.971 / def 0.847 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.894 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
1899 Hoffenheim xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 59% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.97) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.77
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.94
0.95
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
48.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.95 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 27W 16D 14L from 57 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 28L across 57 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1899 Hoffenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 7W 5D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.53 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 27W 16D 14L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 11D 28L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.89 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.93 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 68%, 1899 Hoffenheim 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SC Freiburg and 68% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Freiburg's games and 54% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SC Freiburg's matches and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.98 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 15%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 60%, 1899 Hoffenheim 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.