SC Freiburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Schwarzwald-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 7W 1D 2L at Schwarzwald-Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Schwarzwald-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.30 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 55% and 1899 Hoffenheim 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 62% | 1899 Hoffenheim 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.85 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.162 / defence 1.089 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.727 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.303. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 SC Freiburg games / 30 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | 1899 Hoffenheim 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 40% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Freiburg 1.85 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.162 / def 1.089 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.727 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
1899 Hoffenheim xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 56% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.16) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.08
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.89
1.03
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
32.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.03 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 11W 7D 11L from 29 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 13L across 29 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.38 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.41 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 11W 7D 11L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.71 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 57%, 1899 Hoffenheim 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Freiburg and 64% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SC Freiburg's games and 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Freiburg's matches and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 1-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.85 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.