SC Freiburg 2-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SC Freiburg's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and 1. FC Köln 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 61% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.841 / defence 0.837 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.082 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.814 / away 1.358. 1. FC Köln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SC Freiburg games / 46 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 4.35. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG SC Freiburg 2.01 / 1. FC Köln 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.841 / def 0.837 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.082 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.814 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
SC Freiburg 2 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 55% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (4 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.08x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.51
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.24
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
32.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.23 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 11L from 46 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 13L across 46 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.50 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 6W 9D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 70%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 18W 15D 13L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.77 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.23 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for SC Freiburg, 77% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SC Freiburg) and 54% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Freiburg's games and 77% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Freiburg's matches and 54% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Köln 2-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.08 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 61%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.72 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.