SC Freiburg 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln meet at Dreisamstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dreisamstadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 4–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and 1. FC Köln 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | 1. FC Köln 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.051 / defence 0.961 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.032 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.186. Data: 37 SC Freiburg games / 37 1. FC Köln games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 5.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | 1. FC Köln 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dreisamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG SC Freiburg 1.94 / 1. FC Köln 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.051 / def 0.961 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.032 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Köln xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Dreisamstadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Dreisamstadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 52% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.03x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.65
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
1. FC Köln xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
34.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.18 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 14W 10D 13L from 37 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 17L across 37 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.14 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.19 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.67 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 67%, 1. FC Köln 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Freiburg and 61% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 56% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 61% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Dreisamstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, 1. FC Köln 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.