RB Leipzig 2-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host VfB Stuttgart at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 3D 2L at Red Bull Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
RB Leipzig trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 47% versus VfB Stuttgart 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 53% | VfB Stuttgart 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.37 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.820 / defence 0.895 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.918 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.294. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 RB Leipzig games / 30 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 28%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | VfB Stuttgart 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 40% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG RB Leipzig 1.37 / VfB Stuttgart 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.820 / def 0.895 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.918 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.06
VfB Stuttgart xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
RB Leipzig 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 43% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.38
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.44
1.06
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.06 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 18W 7D 5L from 30 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 11L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 10W 3D 2L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.73 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 70%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 18W 7D 5L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.20 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.40 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2021, when RB Leipzig won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 5, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 47%, VfB Stuttgart 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for RB Leipzig and 67% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of RB Leipzig's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of RB Leipzig's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.37 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.06 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.82 / defence 0.90 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.92 / defence 1.35, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 28%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 53%, VfB Stuttgart 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.