RB Leipzig 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Union Berlin travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Leipzig have posted 6W 2D 2L at Red Bull Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
RB Leipzig are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for RB Leipzig, 1 for Union Berlin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 53% versus Union Berlin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 55% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.94 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.179 / defence 0.784 | Union Berlin attack 0.938 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.281. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 RB Leipzig games / 64 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 17%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 60% | Union Berlin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG RB Leipzig 1.94 / Union Berlin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.179 / def 0.784 | Union Berlin attack 0.938 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
RB Leipzig 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin part of?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 60% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RB Leipzig and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): RB Leipzig 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.21
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.88
0.94
Union Berlin xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
41.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.94 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 35W 14D 15L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 25W 22D 17L from 64 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.86 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.16 PPG from 32 outings (21W 6D 5L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 10D 14L from 32 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.41 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 61%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 35W 14D 15L in their last 64 games (1.86 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 25W 22D 17L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Union Berlin away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.16 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.06 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 3, Union Berlin have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 50%, Union Berlin 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (RB Leipzig) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union Berlin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 59% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of RB Leipzig's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do RB Leipzig and Union Berlin tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 1-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.94 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Union Berlin outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 60% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 17%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 55%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.86 PPG, Union Berlin 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.