RB Leipzig 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Union Berlin travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 January 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Leipzig have posted 6W 1D 1L at Red Bull Arena — 2.38 PPG. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Union Berlin — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 3D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Leipzig 1.90 PPG, Union Berlin 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 50% and Union Berlin 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 50% | Union Berlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.57 xG and Union Berlin 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.094 / defence 0.983 | Union Berlin attack 0.934 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.483. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 RB Leipzig games / 16 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Union Berlin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 50% | Union Berlin 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG RB Leipzig 1.57 / Union Berlin 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.094 / def 0.983 | Union Berlin attack 0.934 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Union Berlin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 20 January 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
RB Leipzig 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin part of?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 40% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both RB Leipzig and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.46
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.94
1.36
Union Berlin xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.36 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 9W 5D 2L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 7W 7D 2L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 2.00 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded. Union Berlin's attacking output running into RB Leipzig's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 75%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 9W 5D 2L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Union Berlin away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.29 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.71 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 3, Union Berlin have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 43%, Union Berlin 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for RB Leipzig and 57% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of RB Leipzig's games and 86% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RB Leipzig's matches and 57% of Union Berlin's.
Do RB Leipzig and Union Berlin tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.57 xG and Union Berlin 1.36 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 40% | Draw 29% | Union Berlin 31%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 50%, Union Berlin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 2.00 PPG, Union Berlin 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.