RB Leipzig 3-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host SC Freiburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Leipzig 2.00 PPG, SC Freiburg 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0, SC Freiburg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 57% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 60% | SC Freiburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.92 xG and SC Freiburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.223 / defence 0.762 | SC Freiburg attack 1.022 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.328. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 RB Leipzig games / 47 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 58% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | SC Freiburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: RB Leipzig 30% | SC Freiburg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 58% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG RB Leipzig 1.92 / SC Freiburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.223 / def 0.762 | SC Freiburg attack 1.022 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.03
SC Freiburg xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig 3 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 58% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
Record (2 meetings): RB Leipzig 0W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.42
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.95
1.03
SC Freiburg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
3%
34.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.03 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Leipzig come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 11D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.74 PPG from 47 outings (23W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.70 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RB Leipzig's home form reads 16W 3D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.66 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 13D 11L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or SC Freiburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.22 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 48%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for RB Leipzig and 61% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of RB Leipzig's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.92 xG and SC Freiburg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.22 / defence 0.76 against SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 58% | Draw 23% | SC Freiburg 20%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 60%, SC Freiburg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.70 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.