RB Leipzig 1-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host SC Freiburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
RB Leipzig are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0, SC Freiburg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 53% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 55% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.94 xG and SC Freiburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.270 / defence 0.914 | SC Freiburg attack 1.034 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.354. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 RB Leipzig games / 58 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 24%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 4.17. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG RB Leipzig 1.94 / SC Freiburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.270 / def 0.914 | SC Freiburg attack 1.034 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig 1 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 52% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): RB Leipzig 0W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.20
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.22
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
3%
28.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.28 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Leipzig come into this having played 58 games, going 31W 12D 15L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.47 PPG from 58 outings (23W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.81 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RB Leipzig's home form reads 20W 4D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.57 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or SC Freiburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.21 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 52%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for RB Leipzig and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of RB Leipzig's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.94 xG and SC Freiburg 1.28 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.27 / defence 0.91 against SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 24%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 55%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.81 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.