RB Leipzig 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0, FC Augsburg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 54% versus FC Augsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 56% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.77 xG and FC Augsburg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.109 / defence 0.808 | FC Augsburg attack 0.871 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.423. Data: 66 RB Leipzig games / 66 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 5.00. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG RB Leipzig 1.77 / FC Augsburg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.109 / def 0.808 | FC Augsburg attack 0.871 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Augsburg xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 4 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): RB Leipzig 0W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.85
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.77
1.00
FC Augsburg xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.00 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 66 games, going 35W 14D 17L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.08 PPG from 66 outings (19W 14D 33L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 21W 6D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.82 points per game from 33 outings (7W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.11 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 35W 14D 17L in their last 66 games (1.80 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 19W 14D 33L in their last 66 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.09 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.82 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 52%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (RB Leipzig) and 46% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of RB Leipzig's recent games and 46% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.77 xG and FC Augsburg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against FC Augsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 56%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.