RB Leipzig 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
RB Leipzig (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Red Bull Arena, RB Leipzig have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Red Bull Arena this season.
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward RB Leipzig. A 1.60 PPG lead over 1899 Hoffenheim (2.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 46% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 54% | 1899 Hoffenheim 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.64 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.958 / defence 0.933 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.773 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.359. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 RB Leipzig games / 28 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.76. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG RB Leipzig 1.64 / 1899 Hoffenheim 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.958 / def 0.933 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.773 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.98
1899 Hoffenheim xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 April 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
RB Leipzig 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 52% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.77x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.73
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.62
0.98
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
24.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.98 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 18W 6D 4L from 28 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 13L across 28 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1899 Hoffenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 10W 2D 2L from 14 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 3W 4D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.46 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 68%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 18W 6D 4L in their last 28 games (2.14 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.29 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.93 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 5-0 on 20 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 5-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 50%, 1899 Hoffenheim 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for RB Leipzig and 71% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of RB Leipzig's games and 79% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of RB Leipzig's matches and 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Leipzig's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.64 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.98 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.77 / defence 1.43, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 52% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 21%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 54%, 1899 Hoffenheim 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.