Hertha BSC 1-4 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Hertha BSC welcome Werder Bremen to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 0.80 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 0 for Werder Bremen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2020, ended 4–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Werder Bremen trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 53% versus Werder Bremen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 59% | Werder Bremen 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.06 xG and Werder Bremen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.806 / defence 1.287 | Werder Bremen attack 0.723 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.462. Data: 17 Hertha BSC games / 17 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 28% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 43%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Werder Bremen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 50% | Werder Bremen 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 28% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Hertha BSC 1.06 / Werder Bremen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.806 / def 1.287 | Werder Bremen attack 0.723 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 January 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Hertha BSC 1 - 4 Werder Bremen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen part of?
Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 28% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
28%
3.51
29%
3.49
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.36 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 4W 5D 8L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 7L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.00 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.12 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Werder Bremen away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.00 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Werder Bremen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2020, when Hertha BSC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
From 4 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, Werder Bremen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hertha BSC) and 12% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hertha BSC's games and 62% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 12% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hertha BSC 1-4 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.06 xG and Werder Bremen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Werder Bremen attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 28% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 43%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 59%, Werder Bremen 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.