Hertha BSC 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.60 for VfL Wolfsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hertha BSC 0W, VfL Wolfsburg 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2021, ended 0–2 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus VfL Wolfsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 57% | VfL Wolfsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.914 / defence 0.966 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.161 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.224. Data: 35 Hertha BSC games / 35 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Hertha BSC 1.51 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.914 / def 0.966 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.161 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Hertha BSC 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 39% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.91) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.16x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
39%
2.60
29%
3.45
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.37
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.37 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 11D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.83 PPG from 35 outings (18W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.77 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.18 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 41%, VfL Wolfsburg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hertha BSC) and 53% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hertha BSC's matches and 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 57%, VfL Wolfsburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.