Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union Berlin (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hertha BSC face Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Union Berlin travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 3 for Union Berlin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Union Berlin trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 59% versus Union Berlin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 57% | Union Berlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.60 xG and Union Berlin 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.817 / defence 1.319 | Union Berlin attack 0.970 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.944 / away 1.385. Data: 51 Hertha BSC games / 51 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 42%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 1.60 / Union Berlin 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.817 / def 1.319 | Union Berlin attack 0.970 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.944 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Union Berlin xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Hertha BSC 0 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin part of?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 35% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.18
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.77
Union Berlin xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.77 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 13W 11D 27L from 51 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 13L across 51 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 8W 7D 11L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.55 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 11D 27L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 12D 13L in their last 51 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.19 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union Berlin have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 69%, Union Berlin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Hertha BSC) and 62% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hertha BSC's games and 58% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hertha BSC's matches and 62% of Union Berlin's.
Do Hertha BSC and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.60 xG and Union Berlin 1.77 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.82 / defence 1.32 against Union Berlin attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 35% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 42%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 57%, Union Berlin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.