Hertha BSC 1-4 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 45%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Union Berlin travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for Union Berlin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Union Berlin trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 56% versus Union Berlin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 61% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.70 xG and Union Berlin 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.985 / defence 1.341 | Union Berlin attack 0.742 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.315. Data: 62 Hertha BSC games / 62 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 3.57. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | Union Berlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Hertha BSC 1.70 / Union Berlin 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.985 / def 1.341 | Union Berlin attack 0.742 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Union Berlin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Hertha BSC 1 - 4 Union Berlin.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin part of?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 45% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hertha BSC and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.83
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.31
Union Berlin xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.31 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 15W 16D 31L from 62 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 17L across 62 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 10W 8D 13L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 7W 10D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.35 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 15W 16D 31L in their last 62 games (0.98 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 23W 22D 17L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Union Berlin away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.23 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union Berlin have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 58%, Union Berlin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hertha BSC) and 48% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hertha BSC's games and 58% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hertha BSC's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do Hertha BSC and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Berlin run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Hertha BSC 1-4 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.70 xG and Union Berlin 1.31 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 61%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.