Hertha BSC 2-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hertha BSC face SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SC Freiburg at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Freiburg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 3 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 57% versus SC Freiburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 52% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.96 xG and SC Freiburg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.816 / defence 1.005 | SC Freiburg attack 1.131 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.375. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Hertha BSC games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 50%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | SC Freiburg 2.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hertha BSC 60% | SC Freiburg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Hertha BSC 0.96 / SC Freiburg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.816 / def 1.005 | SC Freiburg attack 1.131 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SC Freiburg xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 22% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
22%
4.48
27%
3.66
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.56
SC Freiburg xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.56 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 10D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 20W 12D 10L from 42 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.14 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2020, when SC Freiburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 71%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hertha BSC) and 57% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 43%; SC Freiburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hertha BSC's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 57% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg finished level at 2-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.96 xG and SC Freiburg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against SC Freiburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.73, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 22% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 50%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 52%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.