Hertha BSC 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Hertha BSC take on SC Freiburg.

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Match Analysis

Hertha BSC host SC Freiburg at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Freiburg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Hertha BSC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 55% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 62% | SC Freiburg 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.24 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.864 / defence 1.054 | SC Freiburg attack 0.966 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.172. Data: 40 Hertha BSC games / 40 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 35% | SC Freiburg 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | SC Freiburg 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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