Hertha BSC 3-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SC Freiburg at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hertha BSC at 1.00 PPG versus SC Freiburg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2020, ended 1–4 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 55% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 55% | SC Freiburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.33 xG and SC Freiburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.920 / defence 1.343 | SC Freiburg attack 0.685 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.278. Data: 29 Hertha BSC games / 30 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Hertha BSC 1.33 / SC Freiburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.920 / def 1.343 | SC Freiburg attack 0.685 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SC Freiburg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 6 May 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Hertha BSC 3 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 39% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.36
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
SC Freiburg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.18 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 9D 14L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
SC Freiburg's form line: 10W 8D 11L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 0.93 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 6W 9D 14L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SC Freiburg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.15 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2020, when SC Freiburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when SC Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 46%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hertha BSC and 54% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 38% of games; SC Freiburg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hertha BSC's matches and 54% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Hertha BSC and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SC Freiburg 3-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.33 xG and SC Freiburg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.92 / defence 1.34 against SC Freiburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 31%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 55%, SC Freiburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 0.93 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.