Hertha BSC 1-6 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hertha BSC face RB Leipzig.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Leipzig make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
RB Leipzig arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, RB Leipzig in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, RB Leipzig have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Hertha BSC's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–6 with RB Leipzig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 57% versus RB Leipzig 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 59% | RB Leipzig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.33 xG and RB Leipzig 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.839 / defence 1.089 | RB Leipzig attack 0.946 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.365. Data: 56 Hertha BSC games / 56 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 37%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | RB Leipzig 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | RB Leipzig 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Hertha BSC 1.33 / RB Leipzig 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.839 / def 1.089 | RB Leipzig attack 0.946 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Hertha BSC 1 - 6 RB Leipzig.
Where is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig part of?
Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 34% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.84) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (0.95x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.40
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.73
1.41
RB Leipzig xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.41 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 14W 16D 26L from 56 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 15L across 56 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.84 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 14W 16D 26L in their last 56 games (1.04 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or RB Leipzig away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.30 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: RB Leipzig have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 56%, RB Leipzig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hertha BSC) and 44% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hertha BSC's games and 56% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 44% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Hertha BSC 1-6 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.33 xG and RB Leipzig 1.41 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.41 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against RB Leipzig attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 37%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 59%, RB Leipzig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.