Hertha BSC 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 December 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 0.90 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 73% and FSV Mainz 05 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 64% | FSV Mainz 05 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.96 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.998 / defence 1.371 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.783 / defence 1.486. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.618. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.486 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Hertha BSC games / 11 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 41% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | FSV Mainz 05 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 41% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 73% | xG Hertha BSC 1.96 / FSV Mainz 05 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.998 / def 1.371 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.783 / def 1.486 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
FSV Mainz 05 xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 15 December 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Hertha BSC 0 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 41% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (1.00) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.77
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.70
1.74
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
5%
21.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.74 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 8L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.09 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.80 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hertha BSC 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 80%, FSV Mainz 05 at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hertha BSC and 100% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hertha BSC's games and 80% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hertha BSC's matches and 100% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hertha BSC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and FSV Mainz 05 finished level at 0-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.96 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.74 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.78 / defence 1.49, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 41% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 64%, FSV Mainz 05 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.