Hertha BSC 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees FC Augsburg travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion Berlin.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hertha BSC at 1.30 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 2, FC Augsburg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2021, ended 2–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 59% | FC Augsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.54 xG and FC Augsburg 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.842 / defence 0.935 | FC Augsburg attack 0.694 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.183. Data: 46 Hertha BSC games / 46 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 16%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | FC Augsburg 6.25. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | FC Augsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Hertha BSC 1.54 / FC Augsburg 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.842 / def 0.935 | FC Augsburg attack 0.694 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
FC Augsburg xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 53% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 2W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.84) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.20
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.31
0.77
FC Augsburg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.77 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 12D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (13W 9D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.04 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hertha BSC's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (3W 4D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Augsburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.02 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or FC Augsburg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.23 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2020, when Hertha BSC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, FC Augsburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hertha BSC) and 46% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Augsburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 46% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 46% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.54 xG and FC Augsburg 0.77 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against FC Augsburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 16%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 59%, FC Augsburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.04 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.