Hertha BSC 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Hertha BSC welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion Berlin. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2021, ended 3–0 with Hertha BSC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus Bayer Leverkusen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 61% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.18 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.854 / defence 0.973 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.415 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.230. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Hertha BSC games / 44 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 47%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.13. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hertha BSC 1.18 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.854 / def 0.973 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.415 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.51
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.69
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
22.46
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.69 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 12W 11D 21L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 13L across 44 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 9W 6D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.73 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.24 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hertha BSC) and 52% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 33% of games; Bayer Leverkusen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hertha BSC's matches and 52% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.18 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.42 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 24% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 47%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 61%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.