Hertha BSC 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Hertha BSC welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 52% versus Bayer Leverkusen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.767 / defence 1.418 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.850 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.376. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Hertha BSC games / 25 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 17% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 17% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Hertha BSC 0.83 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.767 / def 1.418 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.850 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 21 March 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Hertha BSC 3 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 17% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.77x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
17%
5.87
27%
3.65
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.87
17%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
3%
30.82
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.66 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 5W 6D 14L from 25 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 7L across 25 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.72 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.92 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hertha BSC) and 42% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 42%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 42% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 42% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.77 / defence 1.42 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 17% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.