Hertha BSC 2-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Hertha BSC take on Arminia Bielefeld.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Arminia Bielefeld travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 56% versus Arminia Bielefeld 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 58% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.04 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.795 / defence 0.884 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.713 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.752 / away 1.355. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arminia Bielefeld's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Hertha BSC games / 48 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 36% | Draw 37% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | Arminia Bielefeld 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 36% | Draw 37% | Arminia Bielefeld 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Hertha BSC 1.04 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.795 / def 0.884 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.713 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.752 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Arminia Bielefeld xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Hertha BSC 2 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 36% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.80x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
37%
2.69
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
1.89
0.85
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.85 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 12W 14D 22L from 48 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 23L across 48 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.04 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 12W 14D 22L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 10W 15D 23L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.22 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 52%, Arminia Bielefeld 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Hertha BSC) and 39% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 30% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.04 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.85 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arminia Bielefeld landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.71 / defence 0.75, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 36% | Draw 37% | Arminia Bielefeld 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 58%, Arminia Bielefeld 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.04 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.