Hamburger SV 0-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Volksparkstadion to face Hamburger SV in Bundesliga, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Monday 23 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hamburger SV's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Hamburger SV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hertha BSC attack 0.693 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.412. Data: 0 Hamburger SV games / 68 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 28%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Hertha BSC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Hamburger SV 1.43 / Hertha BSC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Hertha BSC attack 0.693 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 23 May 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Hamburger SV 0 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC part of?
Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 42% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.69x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.38
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.12 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 0%.
Defensively: Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Hamburger SV or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 0% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 0% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Hamburger SV 0-2 at Volksparkstadion, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Hertha BSC attack 0.69 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 42% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 28%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 0%, Hertha BSC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.