FSV Mainz 05 0-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as FSV Mainz 05 welcome VfL Wolfsburg to MEWA ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MEWA ARENA, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FSV Mainz 05) versus 1.30 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–5 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 56% versus VfL Wolfsburg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 59% | VfL Wolfsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.970 / defence 0.830 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.813 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.331. Data: 46 FSV Mainz 05 games / 46 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.55. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.53 / VfL Wolfsburg 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.970 / def 0.830 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.813 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 52% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.74
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.43
0.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.90 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 10D 18L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (15W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.39 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.30 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.86 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 0.91 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
3
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 41%, VfL Wolfsburg 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FSV Mainz 05) and 41% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 36% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 41% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Wolfsburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 0-3 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.90 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 22%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a VfL Wolfsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.39 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.