FSV Mainz 05 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to MEWA ARENA to face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. FSV Mainz 05's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.21 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.842 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.171. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing FSV Mainz 05's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 FSV Mainz 05 games / 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.21 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.842 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FSV Mainz 05 3 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 65% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.84) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.84x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.28
11%
8.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.10
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
8.75
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
80.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.89 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FSV Mainz 05 are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 100%.
Defensively: FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have FSV Mainz 05 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
0
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.21 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.84 / defence 1.48, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 65% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 0%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FSV Mainz 05 arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FSV Mainz 05 scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.