FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Hertha BSC travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 December 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at MEWA ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.10 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 0 for Hertha BSC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 59% versus Hertha BSC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 51% | Hertha BSC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.02 xG and Hertha BSC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.978 / defence 0.782 | Hertha BSC attack 0.865 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.355. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 FSV Mainz 05 games / 49 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 61% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 15%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 61% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.02 / Hertha BSC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.978 / def 0.782 | Hertha BSC attack 0.865 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hertha BSC xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 December 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 4 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 61% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.98) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.14
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.94
0.92
Hertha BSC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
51.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.92 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 22L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.22 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 7D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.18 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Hertha BSC away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.24 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hertha BSC 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 52%, Hertha BSC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FSV Mainz 05) and 56% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 28% of games; Hertha BSC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 60% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Hertha BSC 4-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.02 xG and Hertha BSC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 0.78 against Hertha BSC attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 61% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 15%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 51%, Hertha BSC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.22 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.