FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 60% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.42 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.124 / defence 1.058 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.991 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.857 / away 1.331. Data: 55 FSV Mainz 05 games / 55 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 59% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 20%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 59% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.42 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.124 / def 1.058 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.991 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.857 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 4 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 59% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (3 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 1W | Draws 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 1.12x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.60
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.82
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
9%
11.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
2%
57.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.40 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 12D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 20W 14D 21L from 55 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.36 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (13W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 9D 13L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.67 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.78 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 48%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FSV Mainz 05) and 59% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.42 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 59% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 20%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 60%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.36 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.