FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as FSV Mainz 05 welcome Bayern München to MEWA ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MEWA ARENA, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at MEWA ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayern München have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of FSV Mainz 05's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Bayern München 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Bayern München winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 57% and Bayern München 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FSV Mainz 05 52% | Bayern München 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.32 xG and Bayern München 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.032 / defence 0.685 | Bayern München attack 1.632 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.325. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.632 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.685 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 FSV Mainz 05 games / 65 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 32% | Draw 28% | Bayern München 40%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Bayern München 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 30% | Bayern München 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 32% | Draw 28% | Bayern München 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.32 / Bayern München 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.032 / def 0.685 | Bayern München attack 1.632 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bayern München xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 3 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 32% chance of winning, Bayern München a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.58
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.81
1.48
Bayern München xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.48 for Bayern München, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 21W 15D 29L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bayern München's form line: 48W 9D 8L from 65 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FSV Mainz 05.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 22W 4D 6L from 32 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.94 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 69%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 21W 15D 29L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 48W 9D 8L in their last 65 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.47 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.19 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bayern München in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Bayern München won 8-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
6
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Bayern München have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 44%, Bayern München 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FSV Mainz 05) and 78% (Bayern München). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 75% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 78% of Bayern München's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayern München.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Bayern München 3-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.32 xG and Bayern München 1.48 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.03 / defence 0.69 against Bayern München attack 1.63 / defence 0.79, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 32% | Draw 28% | Bayern München 40%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, Bayern München 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.