FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 47%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MEWA ARENA to face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 18 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's home record at MEWA ARENA: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at MEWA ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 0W, Bayer Leverkusen 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 57% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.77 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / defence 0.643 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.431 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.387. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 FSV Mainz 05 games / 56 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 26%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.85. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.77 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / def 0.643 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.431 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 February 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FSV Mainz 05 3 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 47% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.43x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.62
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.28 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 13D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 26W 15D 15L from 56 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FSV Mainz 05.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 12W 8D 8L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 26W 15D 15L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.43 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-3 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 46%, Bayer Leverkusen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FSV Mainz 05) and 57% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out Bayer Leverkusen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.77 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.03 / defence 0.64 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.43 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 26%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.