FC Schalke 04 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen meet at VELTINS-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Schalke 04's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Schalke 04's home record at VELTINS-Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC Schalke 04. A 0.50 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Werder Bremen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to FC Schalke 04's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Werder Bremen have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 57% and Werder Bremen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 64% | Werder Bremen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.95 xG and Werder Bremen 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.886 / defence 1.379 | Werder Bremen attack 1.198 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.291. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 FC Schalke 04 games / 29 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 35% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Werder Bremen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Werder Bremen lead the H2H ledger, but FC Schalke 04 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Schalke 04 (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 40% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 35% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 77% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.95 / Werder Bremen 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.886 / def 1.379 | Werder Bremen attack 1.198 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Werder Bremen xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 35% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen?
Record (5 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.20x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.22
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
4.09
2.13
Werder Bremen xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.41
Clean Sheet
12%
8.44
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
4%
24.28
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.13 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 25W 14D 24L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 28W 14D 21L from 63 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for FC Schalke 04 against 1.56 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (14W 6D 11L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 15W 7D 9L from 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.78 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 25W 14D 24L in their last 63 games (1.41 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 28W 14D 21L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.55 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 1-4 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when FC Schalke 04 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for FC Schalke 04, 71% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for FC Schalke 04 and 77% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Schalke 04's games and 71% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 77% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.95 xG and Werder Bremen 2.13 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.89 / defence 1.38 against Werder Bremen attack 1.20 / defence 1.29, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 35% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 42%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 64%, Werder Bremen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.41 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.