FC Schalke 04 0-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees RB Leipzig travel to VELTINS-Arena to take on FC Schalke 04. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 at VELTINS-Arena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 3W 4D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RB Leipzig are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, RB Leipzig 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2020, ended 0–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 47% versus RB Leipzig 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 68% | RB Leipzig 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.94 xG and RB Leipzig 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.692 / defence 1.442 | RB Leipzig attack 0.918 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.427. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 FC Schalke 04 games / 19 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 18% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 59%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | RB Leipzig 1.69. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Schalke 04 40% | RB Leipzig 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 18% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.94 / RB Leipzig 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.692 / def 1.442 | RB Leipzig attack 0.918 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.89
RB Leipzig xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
FC Schalke 04 0 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 18% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.69) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
18%
5.61
23%
4.30
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.89
RB Leipzig xG
5.61
18%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
3%
37.03
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.89 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 1W 5D 13L from 19 games, a 0.42 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 3L across 19 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 1.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 1W 2D 6L from 9 games — 0.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 3W 4D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.58 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.68 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 5D 13L in their last 19 games (0.42 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 11W 5D 3L in their last 19 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 0.56 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.44 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2023, when RB Leipzig won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
4
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when RB Leipzig 4-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 33%, RB Leipzig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Schalke 04) and 33% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 33%; FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 56% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Schalke 04's recent games and 33% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Schalke 04 0-3 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.94 xG and RB Leipzig 1.89 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.69 / defence 1.44 against RB Leipzig attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 18% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 59%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 68%, RB Leipzig 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.