FC Schalke 04 0-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as FC Schalke 04 welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to VELTINS-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1W 1D 8L at VELTINS-Arena — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2020, ended 1–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 40% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 68% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.94 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.550 / defence 1.475 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.976 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.360. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.550 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 FC Schalke 04 games / 25 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Schalke 04 10% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.94 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.550 / def 1.475 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.976 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Schalke 04 0 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 16% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 0.55x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
16%
6.17
24%
4.14
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.90
1.96
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
6.17
16%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
43.71
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.96 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 1W 7D 17L from 25 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 8L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Mönchengladbach by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 1W 3D 8L from 12 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.64 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.64 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 7D 17L in their last 25 games (0.40 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 0.50 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2020, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 25%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Schalke 04 and 75% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC Schalke 04 0-3 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.94 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.55 / defence 1.48 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.98 / defence 1.41, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 68%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.