FC Schalke 04 0-4 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as FC Schalke 04 welcome Borussia Dortmund to VELTINS-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Schalke 04 — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's home record at VELTINS-Arena: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Dortmund — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Schalke 04, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2020, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 43% versus Borussia Dortmund 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 67% | Borussia Dortmund 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.02 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.664 / defence 1.487 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.440. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 FC Schalke 04 games / 21 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 63%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Dortmund 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 30% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.02 / Borussia Dortmund 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.664 / def 1.487 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Borussia Dortmund xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 February 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Schalke 04 0 - 4 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 16% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 0.66x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
16%
6.25
21%
4.79
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.20
2.18
Borussia Dortmund xG
6.25
16%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
11%
8.86
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
55.31
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.18 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 1W 6D 14L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 10W 3D 8L from 21 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 0.45 PPG from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 1D 5L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.48 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.95 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 6D 14L in their last 21 games (0.43 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 3D 8L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 0.45 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
3
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when FC Schalke 04 2-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 36%, Borussia Dortmund 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Schalke 04) and 64% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 73% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 64% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Schalke 04 0-4 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.02 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.18 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 2.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.66 / defence 1.49 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.02 / defence 1.33, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 16% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 63%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 67%, Borussia Dortmund 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.