FC Augsburg 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as FC Augsburg welcome VfL Wolfsburg to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 2D 5L at WWK Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfL Wolfsburg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 53% versus VfL Wolfsburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 47% | VfL Wolfsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.90 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / defence 1.275 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.808 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.427. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 FC Augsburg games / 19 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 22% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.00. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 22% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Augsburg 0.90 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / def 1.275 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.808 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
VfL Wolfsburg xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg 0 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 22% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.75x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
22%
4.49
28%
3.59
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.37
1.47
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.8 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.47 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 6W 4D 9L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 9W 8D 2L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfL Wolfsburg are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Wolfsburg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 9W 8D 2L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.10 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Augsburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 30% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 30% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.90 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 22% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 50%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 47%, VfL Wolfsburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.