FC Augsburg 0-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 2W 2D 6L at WWK Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Augsburg, 1.00 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, VfL Bochum 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 58% versus VfL Bochum 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | VfL Bochum 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.24 xG and VfL Bochum 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.805 / defence 1.167 | VfL Bochum attack 0.684 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.894 / away 1.325. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 FC Augsburg games / 48 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Bochum 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | VfL Bochum 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | VfL Bochum 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Bochum 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Augsburg 2.24 / VfL Bochum 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.805 / def 1.167 | VfL Bochum attack 0.684 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.894 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
VfL Bochum xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 64% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.81) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.68x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.21
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.30
1.06
VfL Bochum xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
56.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.06 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 11D 23L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 15W 7D 26L from 48 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.08 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 18L from 24 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.06 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 15W 7D 26L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.25 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 67%, VfL Bochum 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for FC Augsburg and 67% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Augsburg's games and 50% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of VfL Bochum's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.24 xG and VfL Bochum 1.06 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against VfL Bochum attack 0.68 / defence 1.47, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Bochum 17%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, VfL Bochum 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.