FC Augsburg 2-3 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 5W 2D 3L at WWK Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 1W 0D 6L from 7 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Augsburg, 1.30 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus VfL Bochum 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 54% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.07 xG and VfL Bochum 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.037 / defence 1.018 | VfL Bochum attack 0.574 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.256. Data: 47 FC Augsburg games / 13 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 66% | Draw 23% | VfL Bochum 10%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Bochum 10.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | VfL Bochum 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 66% | Draw 23% | VfL Bochum 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Augsburg 2.07 / VfL Bochum 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.037 / def 1.018 | VfL Bochum attack 0.574 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.73
VfL Bochum xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
FC Augsburg 2 - 3 VfL Bochum.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 66% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.04) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.57x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
66%
1.50
23%
4.27
10%
9.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.81
0.73
VfL Bochum xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
9.92
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
78.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.73 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 4D 6L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 5W 1D 7L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.23 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Augsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Bochum in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.67 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.50 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 67%, VfL Bochum 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Augsburg and 67% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 33% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of VfL Bochum's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat FC Augsburg 2-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.07 xG and VfL Bochum 0.73 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VfL Bochum outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against VfL Bochum attack 0.57 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 66% | Draw 23% | VfL Bochum 10%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 54%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.