FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward FC Augsburg. A 0.60 PPG lead over VfB Stuttgart (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to VfB Stuttgart, who have claimed 8 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–5 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 63% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 66% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.018 / defence 0.946 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 2.007 / away 1.401. Data: 38 FC Augsburg games / 38 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 57% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | VfB Stuttgart 4.35. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
VfB Stuttgart lead the H2H ledger, but FC Augsburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 57% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Augsburg 2.27 / VfB Stuttgart 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.018 / def 0.946 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / def 1.113 | league avg home 2.007 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 57% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 8W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.02) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.06x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.81
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.68
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
2%
43.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 8D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.71 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.03 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.58 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
8
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for FC Augsburg, 84% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for FC Augsburg and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Augsburg's games and 84% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC Augsburg's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.