FC Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Augsburg, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 56% and Union Berlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 48% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.51 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.985 / defence 1.038 | Union Berlin attack 0.984 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.358. Data: 54 FC Augsburg games / 54 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Union Berlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Augsburg 1.51 / Union Berlin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.985 / def 1.038 | Union Berlin attack 0.984 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union Berlin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.98) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.98x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.36
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.39
Union Berlin xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.39 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 12L across 54 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 9W 7D 10L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.46 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 21W 21D 12L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.31 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Union Berlin have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, Union Berlin 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 54% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 65% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 54% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.51 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 32%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 48%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.