FC Augsburg 3-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.30 PPG versus RB Leipzig's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Augsburg, 1 for RB Leipzig and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus RB Leipzig 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 52% | RB Leipzig 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.33 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.726 / defence 1.042 | RB Leipzig attack 0.864 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.363. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 FC Augsburg games / 44 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | RB Leipzig 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.33 / RB Leipzig 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.726 / def 1.042 | RB Leipzig attack 0.864 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
FC Augsburg 3 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.55
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.55
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.23 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 9D 21L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 21W 10D 13L from 44 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 6W 7D 9L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.02 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 10D 13L in their last 44 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 64%, RB Leipzig 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 41% (RB Leipzig).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Augsburg's games and 64% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 41% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 11, as FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.33 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against RB Leipzig attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 34%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 52%, RB Leipzig 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.