FC Augsburg 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Augsburg 0W, FSV Mainz 05 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 56% versus FSV Mainz 05 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.86 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.061 / defence 0.864 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.826 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.321. Data: 61 FC Augsburg games / 61 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 58% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | FSV Mainz 05 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | FSV Mainz 05 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 58% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.86 / FSV Mainz 05 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.061 / def 0.864 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.826 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FSV Mainz 05 xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 58% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.06x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.83x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.00
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.81
0.94
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
37.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.94 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 17W 14D 30L from 61 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 26L across 61 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.26 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 17W 14D 30L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for FC Augsburg, 70% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 60% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 60% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.86 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 58% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 17%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.07 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.