FC Augsburg 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 December 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 58% and Eintracht Frankfurt 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.54 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.863 / defence 1.207 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.866 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.603. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FC Augsburg games / 12 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Augsburg 1.54 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.863 / def 1.207 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.866 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.603 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 December 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 0 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 32% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.86) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.22
1.68
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.68 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 2L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.58 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 8D 2L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.33 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
6
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 83% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 83% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 83% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.54 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.87 / defence 1.43, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 92% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.