FC Augsburg 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 50% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 47% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.73 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.800 / defence 1.424 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.934 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.334. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 FC Augsburg games / 38 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 71% | xG FC Augsburg 1.73 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.800 / def 1.424 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.934 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 35% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.60
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.50
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.77
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.77 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 8D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (14W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.82 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.16 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC Augsburg and 84% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 84% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.73 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.42 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 37%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 47%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.